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Pitt Panthers vs. UConn Huskies Betting Odds and Preview
2010-11-11
Sportsbook.com Pitt vs. UConn Betting Odds: Pittsburgh -6, Total: 47.5
Pittsburgh goes for its fourth straight win when it travels to East Hartford, CT on Thursday night. The Panthers are unbeaten in Big East play and have won their five games this year by an average of 23.4 PPG. UConn forced four turnovers in a 16-13 upset win over West Virginia last Friday. The Huskies are a perfect 4-0 at home (SU and ATS) this year thanks to 15 takeaways and only six giveaways. That isn’t deterring the football betting crowd at Sportsbook.com from betting the visitors as 77 percent of the point spread bettors are on Pitt.
The Huskies still have revenge on their minds from last year’s meeting when they blew a 21-6 lead late in the third quarter and lost 24-21 on a last-second chip-shot field goal. Pittsburgh out-gained UConn 489 to 303 in that game, with RB Dion Lewis (158 rushing yards) and WR Jonathan Baldwin (8 rec., 104 yds, 1 TD) leading the way. But this season has been a different story for these two stars. Lewis was third in the nation with 138 rushing YPG last year, but that number has plummeted to 68 rushing YPG in 2010 with the emergence of Ray Graham (98 rushing YPG). Baldwin ranked 22nd in the nation in receiving yards in 2009 (86 receiving YPG), but that average has dipped to 68 receiving YPG this year. Some of the production drop has to do with sophomore Tino Sunseri starting in his first year at quarterback, but Sunseri has seven touchdowns and just one interception during the three-game win streak.
The key to this game will be whether Pitt’s eighth-ranked run defense (94 rushing YPG) can contain UConn stud RB Jordan Todman who ranks fourth in the nation with 136 rushing YPG. Last season Todman was shut down by the Panthers, gaining just 43 yards on 12 carries and catching three passes for minus-2 yards. If Todman can’t find room to run, it could be a long day for shaky senior QB Zach Frazer. Not only are Frazer’s career stats below average (54% completion rate, 14 TD, 16 INT), but he’s facing a Pittsburgh defense ranked sixth in the nation in sacks. The Panthers have also forced eight turnovers during their three-game win streak. Speaking of turnovers, UConn’s turnover-happy win over WVU marked the third time this season the Huskies have forced four turnovers in a game.
The last four times these Big East rivals squared off, the underdog covered the point spread three times and was 3-1 outright. Here are two more college football betting trends that indicate that the Huskies cover the point spread tonight:
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(42-13 since 1992.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Against - A road team (PITTSBURGH) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13. (69-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +34.9 units. Rating = 3*).
If you are interested in betting on the ‘total’, consider this:
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CONNECTICUT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.
(34-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
To see the rest of the Pitt vs. UConn betting odds, or to check out all of this week’s college football betting lines, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
LSU vs. Auburn, Unbeaten SEC powers square off
2010-10-23
Sportsbook.com’s LSU vs. Auburn Betting NFL Odds Odds: Auburn -6, Total: 51.5
The two remaining SEC unbeaten teams meet Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. LSU has won four of its games by seven points or less this year. Auburn has also had some close calls, winning three games by exactly three points.
LSU’s unblemished record is puzzling, considering the Tigers have 2.4 turnovers per game and have yet to reach 225 passing yards in any of the seven contests. LSU has been lucky, but it has also been very good on defense, ranking third in the nation with just 242 YPG allowed. The Tigers are sixth against the run (84 YPG) and eighth in passing defense (159 YPG).
LSU has not yet faced a player that is the caliber of Auburn QB Cameron Newton. The Heisman front-runner is averaging 305 YPG of total offense with 13 TD and five INT. Newton’s 124 rushing YPG leads an Auburn team ranked sixth in the nation in rushing offense (284 YPG) and sixth in scoring (40.7 PPG). Newton has led Auburn to a whopping 47.3 PPG average in its last four games.
LSU is 6-3 ATS in its past nine games at Auburn, but these football betting trends found at Sportsbook.com show that the odds are not in Les Miles’ favor on Saturday. Two trends backing Auburn include:
Miles is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 27.3, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*).
Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 28.3, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 2*).
For ‘total’ bettors, this tend points towards the ‘under’:
Play Under - Any team against the total (AUBURN) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in October games. (145-80 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +57 units. Rating = 3*).
Head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your weekend college football betting. While you are there remember to place your selections for this weekend’s $100,000 Perfect Parlay contest.
UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds and Preview
2010-10-21
The newly top ranked Oregon Ducks get to strut their stuff under the primetime Thursday night lights against the UCLA Bruins. Sportsbook.com doesn’t expect the high scoring Ducks to lose their first game of the season as the UCLA vs. Oregon point spread is the Ducks -25.5. It should be a high-scoring affair as the ‘total’ is a hefty 61.5 points.
The Ducks lead the nation with 54.3 PPG and have won five of their games by 20-plus points. The bye week was key for QB Darron Thomas (shoulder) to heal, but RB Kenjon Barner (concussion) is not expected to play on Thursday. UCLA is also coming off a bye after a 26-carry, 26-yard rushing performance in a 35-7 loss at Cal.
UCLA QB Kevin Prince is banged up with a knee injury, and his status is uncertain for Thursday. He was dreadful against Cal, completing just 42 percent of his passes (13-for-31) for 99 yards. His backup is Richard Brehaut who has zero touchdowns, two interceptions and 10 sacks in his two-year career (55 pass attempts).
The quarterback at UCLA is not vital to the Bruins success since they run the ball so effectively. Johnathan Franklin is averaging 113 rushing YPG in leading UCLA to the 13th-best rushing attack in the nation (223 rush YPG), which includes the woeful output against Cal.
Oregon leads the country in total offense, averaging 567 yards per game. RB LaMichael James tops the nation with 170 rushing YPG, and he ran for 152 yards in a 24-10 win at UCLA last year. By the way, Sportsbook.com’s Heisman Trophy betting odds indicate James is +1000 to win college football’s most prestigious personal award.
Thomas has had a great sophomore season, throwing at least two TD in his first five games before getting hurt in game number six against Washington State. Thomas is also second on the team in rushing, including a 117-yard performance against Stanford two games ago. If Thomas does have problems with his shoulder, backup QB Nate Costa is certainly capable of filling in. Costa threw just two incomplete passes against WSU, totaling 151 passing yards and 84 rushing yards. Barner is not only James’ backup, averaging 6.5 YPC, but he also returns kicks and is a quality receiver out of the backfield.
Favorites of 20-plus points on
a six-game in-season win streak are 33-15 ATS (69%) since 2005. Oregon knows how to win big considering it is 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 20-plus points since 2007. The Bruins are 2-11 SU (5-8 ATS) in their past 13 road games in Pac-10 play.
These football betting trends give three more reasons to like Oregon Thursday night:
Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. (40-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*).
Play On - Any team (OREGON) - after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. (32-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*).
OREGON is 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was OREGON 38.2, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*).
For bettors looking to make a play on the ‘total’ here is a trend that supports the ‘under’ as the play.
Play Under - Any team against the total (UCLA) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (29-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*).
Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s game, head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your college football betting action.
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